Based on Sony's track record, why should I believe Blu-Ray will beat out HD-DVD?

You shouldn't. The cost for hardware and software is higher on Blu-Ray. Sony is doing everything they can to make sure BD succeeds by subsidising costs. If HD-DVD fails they will no longer have a reason to subsidise anything. We need to hope for competition at the very least.
Or for Blu-Ray to go down in a blaze of glory.
By the way, HD-DVD is supported by the DVD Forum. Blu-Ray is not.

plus i have always thought that the fact that HD-DVD has the letters DVD in them would make it easier for the public to understand the progression to HD media

because
1) you are wrong on Sony's track record
2) BD is a BDA format and not a Sony
3) all of the CE electronics world is backing BD with players from most majore CE companies, Philips, Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic, Samsung.... while thye only one willing to waste money on HD DVD is Toshiba
4) most studios support BD (many exclusively) out of the big 8
-- a) Exclusive : Disney, Fox, Sony,LG, MGM
-- b) none exclusively (WB, Paramount)
while only one studio supports HD DVD Universal
5) many, many more BD players have been sold
6) many more BD movies are comming ut on a regular basis
7) BD movies are way outselling HD DVD movies
-----

I guess the question you should ask yourself is do I want to buy a machine that will bring me top quality HD movies for the next few years or one that is an extremely expensive medium quality DVD upscaling player because all I want is a upscaling DVD player with an occasional HD disk?

[Link: reghardware.co.uk]
[quote]
Sony’s announcement this week of a new Blu-ray device in time for the Summer season in the US is more about stopping people going out and buying a HD DVD player, than making more sales of its existing device.

In pictures shown of the device on various gadget websites, it’s like someone took the original and just shrunk it without changing any of the features, and it is already beginning to look more like a DVD player rather than one of those ancient VHS monstrosities.
The price will go to $599 and this could already have the immediate effect of slowing the HD DVD campaign to a crawl. Blu-ray has been winning the disk war by a ratio of about three to one recently, up from the two to one it achieved in January: Sony has overhauled a considerable lead by the Toshiba and Microsoft-led HD DVD faction by the simple expedient of putting a Bu-ray player in every Playstation 3.

All of this has been achieved despite Blu-ray players costing twice that of HD DVD players at $1,000. But cutting 40 per cent off them with the launch of the BDP-S300, the disk format war could be nearly over. The only way to keep the alternative format devices shipping is if they go for yet another price cut, and already there are fears that the HD DVDV devices are shipping for less than the price of the components.

And if this announcement also freezes the sales of the earlier versions of Blu-ray devices, that still plays to Sony’s hand, since it will not stop the sales of the PS3 so Blu-ray disk demand will continue to rise.
[/quote]

Its not who has the better format or equitment its about what the People like or except. Sony had Beta was great machine everything VHS did Beta could do with only 2 heads while VHS had 2, 4, or 6 heads. Beta Had a deck that could record in stereo and 2 heads. VHS had 2,4, or 6 hrs on a Tape, Beta had up to 51/2 hrs on a tape. Beta the winner, but the people choice VHS. Than you have Camcorders 8mm was better than CVHS. Hi/8mm was better than CVHS. Better who cares about BETTER its all about MONEY. HD, Blu-Ray who win out the Company that can put out a Deck at Consumer price. Cheap,Cheap,Cheap the more you ask people to change formats the cheaper that format has to before People jump in. Like DVD it was out 4-5 yrs before it took off. Cheap is what people want not Better. How many times are you going to buy a movie or a song???.

While a few CE manf are backing one or the other- most are not and the ones that are- a little effort -no one is throwing $$$$

CC has the Toshiba hd down to $399 and with Sony coming out with a $499 player, where does this leave the LG dual player for $1199?

I think the LG player is currently overpriced. Yes, it's unique and convenient, but it costs more than two low-end players, and has a crippled HD DVD side to boot. I might consider a second generation unit, and I do want the PC version for my computer.

I seem to remember the same issues being raised in the VHS/Betamax war and look who won???
Besides I heard the porn industry has sided with HDDVD and that will say a lot!

yup same issues maybe we should have a comparison table

JVC creator of VHS --- JVC is on the BD side
VHS had more CE support --- BD has more CE support
Beta was mostly a one man show --- so is HD DVD
VHS had more studio support --- BD has more studio support
Beta had less capacity --- HD DVD has less capacity


well you heard wrong, not to mention that back then you had four options,
1) get a hooker
2) go to strip club
3) go to peep show
4) buy a movie and hide it at home, so no one needs to know what kind of "perv" you are

now there is the internet and it is way easier to get porn at home so that no one knows the "perv" you are

Hey, some of us make it well know what kind of pervs we are. LOL.

I think the battle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be waging a lot longer than the VHS/Beta debate. The consumer is confused and a lot of people got burned by DiVX (The Circuit City Rent a movie service of a few years back.) I think consumers are a lot more gun shy because they don't want to drop serious cash on something that is going to be obsolete in a year. Because of that, there won't be a clear winner for awhile.

Plus, more and more manufacturers are bound to sign on to make dual format players, especially as hardware prices drop.

Wellllll...the only thing if noticed is the continuing price difference..BR is still around a grand, and HD-DVD has been dropping consistintly..now most around $400..its close to the point people that people will start to ignore the more expensive format..even its better..imho.

Sony's $600 player comes out early summer... then again my PS3 only cost $500 in December and has been playing BDs just fine.. :-)

There are several other options here that may solve the BRD vs. HDDVD format war. As you know, a few players that play both. The other is that they are considering a disc with BRD on one side, and HDDVD on the other side. This option, if implemented would basically back off the war between the two formats. The discs may cost a little bit more, but then you have a disc that will do both. Also, the dual format players generally cost too much anyway. There is a huge difference in the way each format reads the disc.