You'd really need to use a multimeter to confirm the pinout. Note how the first poster has the wrong cable and is getting a FAIL message, and you're getting the same FAIL message...

If you're up to a little DIY, you can easily buy the parts to build a little adapter cable that swaps the ring and tip connections of a 1/8" headphone jack cable. I made one of those myself - prevents me from having to plug in entirely different cables when I swap remote types.

I don't really have any issues with my MX-850 remotes on Windows 7 and the USB-to-Serial adapter I'm using. Always works first try, regardless of connection sequence. Although I have an old MX-700 that sometimes needs the cable wiggled a bit before it'll download.