There is a Big Box store announcement coming which will support HD-DVD and the tables will begin to tilt back the other way.
Black Friday will see an HD-DVD player (likely a no-name Big Box store house brand) at at half or less of the cost of what we see today, and that will pull through a LOT of media purchases....

I am not saying that HD-DVD will win, but certainly neither one is facing exinction anytime soon.

Also, I have a client/friend who owns both and admits that the PQ (on his Ken Whitcomb calibrated Runco FP) is indistiguishable on most films which have been released in both formats.

He notes that the real-time chapter navigation, menu access, etc. with the film running are VASTLY superior on HD-DVD, and that the Java implementation which was supposed to be BDs answer has been a flop so far...