It used to be that DVD players were $400 or more, and could only play DVDs and CDs if lucky
actually in 97 DVD players started off at 1000$ (just like BD players)
Both formats use blue lasers
yes and DVD and CD use different wavelengths :)
I have no doubt that the HD formats will also move down in price (they already are) and move up in availability (they already are).
agree 100%
More than one company has figured out how to make one drive read both.
and their players cost MUCH more then any single format player.
The electronics will get more compact and more efficient and less expensive
agree, but does it make any sense that it will be cheaper then a single format player?
Yes, the data burnt to each format is different, and had to have time spent on it to make it unique. But the same thing happens today within the DVD production business. You'll find basic releases, Director's cuts, and several other variations of each movie released.
agree, but that is not what you said. Or do you disagree that you said ,"If it's digital, it's not hard to make
perfect copies to multiple media formats" is a Director's Cut a perfect copy of a basic release or an other variation?
The issue is that you are talking about the same version of the movie, I bought LOTR TE when it came out and then EE when it came out, the EE did cost the studio something more but they also made a lot of money, I also (if it existed) did not buy the VHS because I already had the movie. If everyone has a BD player and 70% have an HD DVD player and a studio releases a title on both, the people that have BD only and want the movie will buy the BD, if someone owns both then he can buy either the BD or HD DVD (let's pretend that the BD sold 3M and the HD DVD 2M) If that studio only released n BD they would still sell the same number of disks (in this example 5M) the only difference is that it would be in one format and cost them less to produce and manage. The issue is that there are very few (if any) that will buy the same movie on BD and HD DVD, so it is one sale to someone that wants it.
PS Just so that you know, the 100k is way out of date now the last number for Toshiba is 180k (might as well use up to date numbers) this will also be stand alone players (add-on not included) I am sure that in total the numbers must be a bit more then 300k (we don't have good add-on numbers, the last confirmed numbers were around 90k in Dec from NPD- note that unlike Neilsen NPD augments it's numbers for the assumed market that they don't cover). My assumption of a bit over 300k is based on the assumption that
A) more add-ons must have sold since then
B) Since the Toshiba player came very close to the add-on's price and that the 360 is a much worst solution (problems with 360s braking too easily, some disks having issues on the 360 and that the 360 can't do good audio)
The issue is that even though the stand alone players* (i.e. exclude PC that is almost nothing, PS3 -that exclude most BD players and add-on -that excludes around 1/2 the HD DVD players) the BD movies are selling way better then HD DVD. Homemediamagazine has the weekly, SI and YTD every week.
You can see them on-line by going to
[Link: nxtbook.com]hom080507 where 080507 is the date the magazine is published (i.e. it comes outy on Sunday's and this is for Today 08/05/2007). You can see that at no time this year was it ever 50/50 even on a week when BD did not release a movie or there were tons of HD DVDs and only a few BDs BD outsold them by a lot. Every qurter they have a special HD section, it will be interesting to see how much farther behind HD DVD has fallen.
What you are missing is that for a format to do well it needs people to beleive in it. It needs studios and CEs to beleive in it. But they don't and can't if HD DVD is losing ground and losing it fast. Why do you think Denon went Blu? why do you think many mini studios have gone BD, Why do you think places like Target and BlockBuster are pushing BD. Why do you think all year you have not heard any real anouncement about HD DVD gaining support? | It used to be that DVD players were $400 or more, and could only play DVDs and CDs if lucky
actually in 97 DVD players started off at 1000$ (just like BD players)
Both formats use blue lasers
yes and DVD and CD use different wavelengths :)
I have no doubt that the HD formats will also move down in price (they already are) and move up in availability (they already are).
agree 100%
More than one company has figured out how to make one drive read both.
and their players cost MUCH more then any single format player.
The electronics will get more compact and more efficient and less expensive
agree, but does it make any sense that it will be cheaper then a single format player?
Yes, the data burnt to each format is different, and had to have time spent on it to make it unique. But the same thing happens today within the DVD production business. You'll find basic releases, Director's cuts, and several other variations of each movie released.
agree, but that is not what you said. Or do you dissagree that you said ,"If it's digital, it's not hard to make
perfect copies to multiple media formats" is a Director's Cut a perfect copy of a basic release or an other variation?
The issue is that you are talking about the same version of the movie, I bought LOTR TE when it came out and then EE whenb oit came out, the EE did cost the studio something more but they also made a lot of money, I also (if it existed) did not buy the VHS because I already had the movie. If everyone has a BD player and 70% have an HD DVD player and a studio releases a title on both, the people that have BD only and want the movie will buy the BD, if someone owns both then he can buy either the BD or HD DVD (let's pretend that the BD sold 3M and the HD DVD 2M) If that studio only released n BD they would still sell the same number of disks (in this example 5M) the only difference is that it would be in one format and cost them less to produce and manage. The issue is that there are very few (if any) that will buy the same movie on BD and HD DVD, so it is one sale to someone that wants it.
PS Just so that you know, the 100k is way out of date now the last number for Toshiba is 180k (might as well use up to date numbers) this will also be stand alone players (add-on not included) I am sure that in total the numbers must be a bit more then 300k (we don't have good add-on numbers, the last confirmed numbers were around 90k in Dec from NPD- note that unlike Neilsen NPD augments it's numbers for the assumed market that they don't cover). My assumption of a bit over 300k is based on the assumption that
A) more add-ons must have sold since then
B) Since the Toshiba player came very close to the add-on's price and that the 360 is a much worst solution (problems with 360s braking too easily, some disks having issues on the 360 and that the 360 can't do good audio)
The issue is that even though the stand alone players* (i.e. exclude PC that is almost nothing, PS3 -that exclude most BD players and add-on -that excludes around 1/2 the HD DVD players) the BD movies are selling way better then HD DVD. Homemediamagazine has the weekly, SI and YTD every week.
You can see them on-line by going to
[Link: nxtbook.com]hom080507 where 080507 is the date the magazine is published (i.e. it comes outy on Sunday's and this is for Today 08/05/2007). You can see that at no time this year was it ever 50/50 even on a week when BD did not release a movie or there were tons of HD DVDs and only a few BDs BD outsold them by a lot. Every qurter they have a special HD section, it will be interesting to see how much farther behind HD DVD has fallen.
What you are missing is that for a format to do well it needs people to believe in it. It needs studios and CEs to believe in it. But they don't and can't if HD DVD is losing ground and losing it fast. Why do you think Denon went Blu? why do you think many mini studios have gone BD, Why do you think places like Target and BlockBuster are pushing BD. Why do you think all year you have not heard any real announcement about HD DVD gaining support?
I tried to warn you not to trust bookaroni but you decide to take his advice. I could not do anything more.
