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Original thread:
Post 25 made on Wednesday September 4, 2019 at 16:24
djy
RC Moderator
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August 2001
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On September 4, 2019 at 00:17, tomciara said...
So “man made global warming” I am thinking is the issue. Climate changes are cyclical as you noted, without any industrial contribution. In fact, didn’t the cooling period of the 20th century coincide with the uptick in manufacturing and driving that you would have expected the opposite?

So I am thinking it’s the “man made” part that causes disagreement?

The anthropogenic component today’s atmospheric CO2 content is indeed an issue, but the primary concern is one of climate sensitivity: the temperature rise for a doubling of CO2. As ever, the IPCC offers scenarios of doom and gloom unless radical changes are made, but research since Hansen’s testimony suggests it towards the lower end of their spectrum or perhaps even lower.

You mention the mid-twentieth century cooling period, where there was genuine concern about the possibility of an oncoming ice age. The twentieth century, however, saw three distinct climatic phases: a warming period from circa 1915 to 1945, a cooling period from circa 1945 to 1978, then a further warming period from circa 1978 to 2000. It’s easy to claim, the latter warming is a result of CO2 emissions, but as you say it’s generally agreed that CO2 became a factor during the 1950s; long before the re-emergence of warming. One should also consider that the rate of the late-twentieth-century warming is very similar to the early twentieth-century warming when CO2 had no influence. And that since 2000 the rate of rise has dramatically reduced even though the global CO2 level continues to climb.

It’s my belief the IPCC are grossly overestimating the importance of CO2 to pursue their goal of political change to ‘combat’ its rise. The irony, however, is that the changes they want to see will, almost certainly, bring about the Armageddon they claim they are trying to avert.


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